The Cali Garmo

Today is the Eurovision 2015 Final! Are you ready to see who is going to get the honour of hosting next year's Eurovision? Just like last year I went through and tracked the Youtube counts of each contestant. The results are below:

    Country          Youtube Counts

1 Russia 6,929,010  2 Azerbaijan 5,811,387  3 Albania 4,266,511  4 Belgium 2,691,651  5 Estonia 2,524,705  6 United Kingdom 2,455,474  7 Australia 2,438,395  8 Sweden 2,206,390  9 Armenia 2,007,327  10 Spain 1,994,461  11 Italy 1,924,283  12 Georgia 1,894,720  13 Israel 1,671,093  14 Montenegro 1,336,488  15 Slovenia 1,270,409  16 Norway 1,193,938  17 Germany 1,152,795  18 Lithuania 1,015,680  19 Austria 985,326  20 Serbia 965,594  21 Greece 902,582  22 Romania 896,831  23 France 770,344  24 Latvia 719,360  25 Hungary 686,445  26 Poland 494,099  27 Cyprus 446,262

As we see we have Russia in first, Azerbaijan in second and Albania in third, but just looking at the final Youtube counts doesn't paint the whole picture. Below you'll see the trend in Youtube counts of the final contestants since the end of March. Some interesting trends happen.

Just like last year, it looks like Azerbaijan has paid some company to boost their youtube counts. They are the only country to get a random spike halfway through the Eurovision season and maintain a 'strong' growth. Last year we saw the exact same thing with Azerbaijan where a month or two before the competition there was a sudden spike and strong growth in their Youtube counts. If the numbers were accurate we would see a much more smooth trend as occurs in almost every other country.

But in order to get a more accurate reading on who is viewing what more often, we look at which contestant people started watching more of in the last week. The reason this method is more accurate is because it is not until the last week of the competition that most people get excited. Most people are busy with their lives and have other things to do and so they don't follow Eurovision that closely. It's not until the last week that everyone actually gathers around and starts looking at the competition. So let's see what the countries look like according to the rate of change since the 17th.

    Country         17 May 2015   23 May 2015   **Change**

1 Belgium 1,306,575 2,691,651 206.01% 2 Lithuania 545,156 1,015,680 186.31% 3 Latvia 386,295 719,360 186.22% 4 Hungary 373,410 686,445 183.83% 5 Sweden 1,209,743 2,206,390 182.39% 6 Romania 497,152 896,831 180.39% 7 Estonia 1,413,036 2,524,705 178.67% 8 Greece 508,080 902,582 177.65% 9 Slovenia 730,242 1,270,409 173.97% 10 Australia 1,416,110 2,438,395 172.19% 11 Poland 297,897 494,099 165.86% 12 France 465,404 770,344 165.52% 13 Cyprus 274,139 446,262 162.79% 14 Serbia 597,877 965,594 161.50% 15 Italy 1,200,160 1,924,283 160.34% 16 Germany 728,918 1,152,795 158.15% 17 Spain 1,266,673 1,994,461 157.46% 18 Russia 4,486,574 6,929,010 154.44% 19 Israel 1,083,109 1,671,093 154.29% 20 Montenegro 871,313 1,336,488 153.39% 21 Norway 786,934 1,193,938 151.72% 22 Georgia 1,263,248 1,894,720 149.99% 23 Austria 671,062 985,326 146.83% 24 Albania 3,133,118 4,266,511 136.17% 25 Azerbaijan 4,283,162 5,811,387 135.68% 26 Armenia 1,553,169 2,007,327 129.24% 27 United Kingdom 1,916,707 2,455,474 128.11%

As we see looking at the change rate we get Azerbaijan near the bottom with Belgium leading the group. According to current betting odds, Sweden is expected to win with Russia and Italy close behind. But, the most curious thing about the odds is that Belgium has suddenly shot up to to be a serious contender in the competition. Maybe it's no coincidence that they had the most overall increase in the number of views to their Youtube video.

Correlations with 2014

If we look at 2014, Sweden was expected to win the competition just as it is today. But there was one, and only one, country that doubled their youtube counts in the last week before the competition, Austria. Against all odds Austria ended up winning the competition. Although the juries had voted politically, enough people stood up against politics and voted with their hearts and led Austria to victory. This year we have a very similar situation. Sweden is again expected to win, but Belgium is the only country to have doubled their Youtube counts. So my guess is that Belgium has a very strong chance of winning. The key difference this year from last is that last year Austria not only had the greatest growth, but they also had the most number of overall views. This year Belgium comes in at 4th in overall views and has only 1/3 the number of views that Austria did.

With the political voting of the juries, it's still anyone's game. Although Belgium is now the expected winner in my books, Sweden, Russia, and Italy are very strong contenders, mainly due to political voting. It's going to be a tight race this year, but it'll be a fun one. Let's see which country dominates the singing arena and brings home the competition.

Good luck to all participants, and remember to continue building bridges and spreading love wherever you go =)

-The Cali Garmo